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Retire Smart
Retire Smart...HAVE YOU CHECKED YOUR RETIREMENT SAVINGS LATELY?
By
Jan 31, 2008, 22:13

Have you checked in on your retirement savings lately? If you're like most Americans, your investments probably are on autopilot most of the time.

That could mean trouble heading into 2008-a year with an above-average risk of a portfolio-eroding economic recession.

Regular monitoring of your 401(k) account or other retirement vehicles is important in any economic environment, but it's critical in volatile times.

Few economists are forecasting recession in 2008-although most say the risk is rising. The key culprits include the plunge in housing values sparked by the sub prime lending crisis, high energy prices and slowing job growth.

"We're looking for slow growth this year, but our vulnerability to recession is growing," says Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), a leading research organization focused on economic cycles.

In a recession, stock portfolios would take a hit-historically, the S&P 500 has dropped about 26 percent in periods leading up to and during recessions.

That's not a reason to bail out on the market; investors never win by trying to time economic cycles. But it is a good time to take stock, and to make sure your investment mix is appropriate for your target retirement age.

You may want to adjust your exposure to stocks, depending how close you are to tapping your account for living expenses. Ask yourself how soon you might need your retirement savings to fund living expenses-and whether you can handle the risk if the equity portion of your portfolio took a plunge?

"When you're young, you want as much growth as possible, so you're probably 90 percent invested in equities," according to Michael Finnegan, chief investment officer at retirement investment firm Principal Funds. "In your early fifties you still want to be 70 percent in stocks, and then take that down to no more than 50 percent in your early 60s, and moving more money into fixed income at a faster rate."

Unfortunately, few investors are paying attention. "Most people don't look at their investment mix on any regular basis," says Pamela Hess, director of retirement research at employee benefits consulting firm Hewitt Associates. Hewitt data shows that just 19 percent of 401(k) plan participants make a trade of any kind in a given year-meaning that very little portfolio re-balancing is occurring.

"We always start by asking investors what they have and where it's located," says Jamie Cornell, senior vice president of Fidelity Investments. "Over and over, we see that 90 percent of investors don't really know what they have."

"We want every investor to have a plan, not to try to time the market," he adds. "Is your equity exposure appropriate for your age? Do you have six months of expenses set aside in a relatively liquid savings vehicle if your job is impacted or if things go awry?
Financial services firms have been moving to introduce more automated retirement saving options, spurred in part by reforms mandated by the Pension Protection Act of 2006. These options let you specify your retirement goals upfront, and then let the money managers keep you on course.

One approach to consider: target date or lifecycle funds, which invest with a specific retirement year in mind. As the target year approaches, the investment blend automatically adjusts. Another option offered by a growing number of plans is automatic rebalancing.

Here, you invest in an array of funds but plan managers adjust the mix on a monthly or quarterly basis to keep your portfolios in sync with goals.
"You set it and forget about it," notes Hess.

A recent survey by Diversified Investment Advisors indicated that 31 percent of large company 401(k) plans now offer automatic balancing, with another 37 percent offering managed account options. According to Hewitt, 60 percent of plans will offer automatic options by the end of this year.

"We are big advocates of lifecycle asset allocation funds, target date and risk-based funds, says Principal's Finnegan.

Yet most investors aren't taking advantage of these options. "Most people don't use automatic plans because they don't understand them," according to Hess. "As a percent, it's somewhere in the single digits."

What do you do if you're in one of these automatic programs and still worry about the impact of recession on your retirement?

"We'd probably recommend doing nothing," says Finnegan. "Life cycle funds are built assuming different inflection points in the market-and you can't forecast economic cycles. Stay in the program, because it's built to anticipate ups and downs in the market."