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Movie Reviews
Oscar Picks and Analysis
By Michael Siebenaler
Feb 16, 2008, 20:02

Yes, the Academy Awards will be televised this year thanks to the end of the Writer’s Guild of America strike. The late push of anticipation and Hollywood star power actually give the ceremony a fresh spin this year.

Not all filmmakers are included in this cavalcade of cinematic celebration. Knocked Up, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead, I Am Legend, The Great Debaters, The Namesake, Spider-Man 3 and Zodiac didn’t get any nominations.

In any case, it’ll be nice to see talented filmmakers and actors getting their due and pretending not to get mad when they don’t win. Categories and my picks in bold.

Best Picture

Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

The Coen brothers’ Country should win here. Michael Clayton was the only nominee from a major studio, the rest were independents. The Bourne Ultimatum should've been a nominee.

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood
Ethan Coen & Joel Coen - No Country For Old Men
Tony Gilroy - Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman - Juno
Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

The Coen brothers won the Directors Guild of America (DGA) award, which usually means they’re sure winners. Anderson has the second best chance. Schnabel also has a chance because he won the Golden Globe. First time nominees Gilroy and Reitman have great careers ahead of them.

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie - Away from Her
Marion Cotillard - La vie en Rose
Laura Linney - Savages
Ellen Page - Juno

Christie’s the front runner here even though she has already won an Oscar for Darling (1966). Cotillard has a chance thanks to her Golden Globe win. Page also has a chance, but new actresses usually have more success in the supporting category than lead.

Best Actor

George Clooney - Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises

Probably the easiest category to pick. Day-Lewis will likely join the double Oscar club with Christie, though the list of competitors are very popular.

Best Supporting Actor

Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton

Bardem has dominated the other award show and seems a likely winner year for his unique antagonist performance. First time nominee/veteran actor Holbrook could take the prize here while giving some much needed recognition to Into The Wild. Affleck also has an outside chance.

Best Supporting Actress

Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
Ruby Dee - American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan - Atonement
Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton

A Blanchett win, for her Bob Dylan portrayal, would make cross gender performance history. Support for her Elizabeth lead actress performance could shift here. Ryan would be the next competitor (she’s the only nominee for the high quality Gone Baby Gone), then Swinton or Dee who both won other awards. Jennifer Garner (Juno) deserved Ronan’s spot.

Best Animated Film

Ratatouille
Persepolis
Surf’s Up

Disney/Pixar made one of the best films this year (animated or live action) with the reviving Ratatouille. Sony will try to steal it away with their two nominations.

Best Original Screenplay

Diablo Cody - Juno
Nancy Oliver – Lars and the Real Girl
Tony Gilroy – Michael Clayton
Brad Bird - Ratatouille
Tamara Jenkins – The Savages

Diablo Cody will likely win, but it’s close with the talented Gilroy for the only other best picture nominee in this category, Michael Clayton, which could possibly cancel them both out for a Bird win. Would’ve been great to see the late Adrienne Shelly get a nomination for Waitress.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Christopher Hampton – Atonement
Sarah Polley – Away From Her
Ronald Harwood - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson – There Will Be Blood

Another tight race. The Coen brothers already won a screenplay Oscar for Fargo, so Anderson should get it here, especially because he likely won’t win for Best Director. Polley get her first nomination.

More categories of interest include:

Best Cinematography

Roger Deakins – The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Seamus McGarvey - Atonement
Janusz Kaminski – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Roger Deakins - No Country for Old Men
Robert Elswit – There Will Be Blood

A serious lack of American born winners hurts a deserving Elswit, who ironically won the American Society of Cinematographers award, Deakins doubles his chances, plus hasn’t won yet after five nominations.

Best Documentary

No End in Sight
Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience
Sicko
Taxi to the Dark Side
War/Dance

Usually a hot topic category, so the Iraq war wins out. No way the Academy will let Moore take the stage again.

Best Editing

Christopher Rouse – The Bourne Ultimatum
Juliette Welfling - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Jay Cassidy – Into the Wild
Roderick Jaynes - No Country for Old Men
Dylan Tichenor – There Will Be Blood

Long running times increase the chances in this category, but the blending of the drama and action genres shown in Bourne and No Country make them frontrunners. Go with Rouse because “Jaynes” is already getting an Oscar for directing.

Best Original Score

Dario Marianelli - Atonement
Alberto Iglesias – The Kite Runner
James Newton Howard – Michael Clayton
Michael Giacchino - Ratatouille
Marco Beltrami – 3:10 to Yuma

Giacchino is my personal pick and Newton might be due after seven nominations for score/songs, but Marianelli takes it.

Best Original Song

“Falling Slowly” from Once - Music and Lyric by Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova
“Happy Working Song” from Enchanted - Music by Alan Menken, Lyric by Stephen Schwartz
“Raise It Up” from August Rush - Music and lyric by Jamal Joseph, Charles Mack and Tevin Thomas
“So Close” from Enchanted - Music by Alan Menken, Lyric by Stephen Schwartz
“That’s How You Know” from Enchanted - Music by Alan Menken, Lyric by Stephen Schwartz

Three times is not the charm here. Amy Adams will sing “Happy Working Song” at the awards plus Menken and Schwartz are very talented, but one nomination is all Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova need to win.

Best Makeup

Norbit gets a nomination thanks to Rick Baker’s makeup work and Eddie Murphy’s tolerance for fat suits (remember the turnstile scene), but Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End will likely beat Norbit and La Vie en Rose.

Best Visual Effects

Transformers takes the prize here for complexity. Golden Compass and Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End are the other nominees.

Jon Stewart returns as host (hopefully for many more years to come). Be sure to watch Sunday, February 24, 2008, at the Kodak Theatre at Hollywood & Highland Center®, live on ABC beginning at 8 p.m. EST.